from Groundhog Gets it Wrong
written by Jess Townes
illustrated by Nicole Miles
Dial Books for Young Readers, 2023
My daffodils are budding. When I wake up now, it’s almost light outside. We’ve had mild weather for two days in a row now, but I still haven’t seen a robin. But, guess what? Most American robins don’t even migrate. So where are they? They tend to “flock up” and keep a pretty low profile. They change their eating habits from munching earthworms and insects to dining on berries and fruit when they can find them. And since males are not defending their territory yet, they stay quiet.
They’re still here, but go unnoticed. So according to the robins, it’s not Spring yet.
Last month, February 2, to be exact, Punxsutawney Phil ran back into his burrow in fear of his own shadow. He predicted six more weeks of winter. If you count six weeks past February 2, you get to March 16. Every year. So according to the groundhog, it’s not Spring yet, either, even if he hadn’t seen his shadow.
Even though Earth travels in an elliptical orbit around the sun, it’s the 23.5 degree tilt from vertical and the position of the sun in relation to the equator that causes the seasons, not the physical distance between Earth and the sun.
At the Vernal Equinox, (from Latin Spring and Equal night) we experience about the same number of daylight hours as darkness. This year, the Vernal Equinox will occur on Monday March 20, at 5:24 PM in America’s Eastern Time Zone. Days will grow longer until Summer Solstice, June 21, 2023, when darkness slowly returns. So according to the calendar, it’s still not Spring. Astronomers and calendar manufacturers have standardized the first day of Spring as March 20, but, really, it fluctuates with the equinox.
For meteorologists and climatologists Meteorological Spring lasts from March 1 through May 31 every year is. Astronomical seasons (the regular ones we mark on our calendars) are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun. Meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle.
According to the American Meteorological Society, a meteorologist “is someone with specialized education who uses scientific principles to explain, understand, observe, or forecast the earth's atmospheric phenomena and…how the atmosphere affects the earth and life on the planet. They study weather patterns, collect and analyze data, and present short term predictions.
Climatologists take the long view. They look for patterns of change. They study data to determine causes for climate change, how plants and animals, including humans, adapt, and what measures we need to implement to ensure (or at least prolong) our sustainability.
Phenology combines meteorology with climatology. It is the study of how changing seasons impact living things and their environment. Phenology studies how dandelions and lilacs bloom exactly when bees wake up to gather their nectar and spread their pollen. Cherry trees set their fruit in time for birds to eat and spread their seeds. Acorns ripen just as squirrels are ready to cache them before winter sets in.
Farmers and home gardeners need to know when plants and insects develop, hatch, and disperse. It helps them determine when to apply fertilizers and pesticides, and choose proper planting times to avoid frosts, both at the beginning and at the end of the growing season.
The United States National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) was established in 2007, “in part to assemble long-term phenology datasets for a broad array of species across the United States.” Scads of information are available on their site.
Here’s an example from its Status of Spring page. Based on data collected from all over the US, and considering first leaf bud to the first emergence of crocuses, the USA-NPN has determined that “Spring has indeed arrived several days to weeks earlier than average (based on the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, while much of southern California and Arizona are days to over a week late.” You can see an up-to-date map of both first leaf emergence and first bloom if you click on the link and then click on either map.
Here’s an interesting activity you might want to try with kids and curious adults. Use the directions at US Department of Land Management to make your own phenology wheel. Draw a circle divided into quarters. Label each section for a season. Find a tree or flower or bush you can return to year after year. Draw a smaller circle in the center of your large circle and draw your tree or bush or flower in that small circle. Now observe. Over the course of a year, draw and label leaf bud, animal and insect visitors, and weather conditions. If you scroll down past the example, you’ll find lots of data suggestions as well as a blank seasonal wheel and one that is divided by months.
On the practical side, you can anticipate when your hay fever will start acting up so you can stock up on kleenexes or make sure you have plenty of handkerchiefs ready.
I’ve had my eye out for our groundhog, but so far I haven’t seen it. Meanwhile, I’ve been watching the birdfeeder. The chickadees are back. Their house is hung. I hope they move in again this year.
I’m almost finished with Invisible Child by Andrea Elliot. The narrative follows eight years in the life of a young girl growing up in extreme poverty in New York City during in Michael Bloomberg’s tenure as mayor and continuing with Bill De Blasio’s. The story is by turns heart wenching, inspiring, and startling. And true. Recommend!
-—be curious! (and keep looking up)